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Hillary Clinton and Prediction Futures

I have two rules regarding Bill and Hillary Clinton: never vote for them, and never bet against them (I won $40 when Bill got elected in 1992).

So earlier this week,, shortly after Hillary announced, I attempted to purchase two "Hillary will be the nominee" futures on intrade (this is what tradesports for non-sports events has become). I noticed the price was down, and I knew this was only temporary. So I put in an order with a limit price of $4.63 (this was right in the middle of the bid-ask spread).

The order has still not been filled. What this means is that the futures have gone up in price since I placed my order, past the price I was willing to pay because more and more traders believe that Hillary is going to get the nomination. Many believe (such as the author of this Wall Street Journal article) that the price of a prediction future reflects the probability of the event. There is a paper at the Iowa Electronic Markets site that makes a case that futures are at least as good as conventinal polling. If prediction futures are a good barometer, Hillary has a lot to be happy about.

I was right to put in the order for Hillary futures. My problem was that I underestimated her by bidding too low. It's OK to not like Hillary, but it's always dangerous to underestimate her.